Leeds United v
Brentford
BrentfordEarly projection
These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.
Leeds average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (19 competitive matches). Brentford average 5.2 corners per game away from home this season (19 competitive matches).
Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026
- Ilia Gruev — Meniscus/knee injury sustained mid-April 2026Expected return: Still rehabilitating and described as 'nowhere close to returning'.
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin — Minor pre-season setback; training aloneExpected return: Being monitored; did not play v Wrexham. No date given
- Jaka Bijol — Training knockExpected return: Minor — had a chance of featuring v Sunderland on 30 July
- Sebastiaan Bornauw — Minor fitness issueExpected return: Minor — could feature v Sunderland on 30 July
- Noah Okafor — NOT injured — on an extended break after reaching the World Cup quarter-finals with SwitzerlandExpected return: Missed the US tour; behind on pre-season conditioning
- 16 Aug · DepartureJoe Gelhardt completes permanent move to Hull CityLeeds confirmed Gelhardt has joined Hull City permanently for an undisclosed fee on a four-year contract, ending a six-year stint at Elland Road.
- 16 Aug · InjuryFarke says Gudmundsson may miss the Forest opener after Chicago hamstring injuryDeveloping the earlier scan story: Farke confirmed ahead of the Augsburg friendly that Gudmundsson remains sidelined and might miss the season opener at Nottingham Forest.
- Gustavo Nunes — Hamstring injury sustained in the second half of the pre-season friendly against Gil Vicente.Expected return: Unverified
- Fabio Carvalho — Recovering from a season-ending ACL injury sustained in 2025/26. Has returned to elements of first-team training at the Portugal pre-season camp and is building sharpness…Expected return: Working towards availability for the start of 2026/27; not confirmed fit
- Antoni Milambo — Recovering from an ACL injury, rehabilitating alongside Carvalho at the Portugal camp; back in limited first-team training.Expected return: Working towards availability for the start of 2026/27; not confirmed fit
- 10 Aug · Line-upSenior XI at Rennes: Sangare, Janelt and Jensen in midfield; Hickey at right-backBrentford split the squad across two fixtures at Rennes on 8 August. The Roazhon Park XI was Kelleher; Hickey, Collins, Pinnock, Lewis-Potter; Janelt, Jensen, Sangare; Ouattara, Thiago…
- 10 Aug · ReturnFabio Carvalho makes first appearance in nine months after ACL injuryCarvalho came on around the hour mark at Roazhon Park for his first first-team minutes since his season-ending ACL injury, hitting the inside of the post late on. Reports noted little sign…
Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.
Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet
- Goalkeeper is the biggest one: Trafford's £40m move is agreed but unannounced; Lucas Perri had an unconvincing debut season and has been linked with Torino; Alex Cairns started pre-season
- Centre-back: Bijol, Rodon, Muharemovic and Bornauw for two places, all four with fitness or integration questions
- This XI is extrapolated from Brentford's settled 2025/26 shape rather than a published 2026/27 predicted lineup - Andrews himself described the summer as 'minimal change', which supports continuity…
- Left wing: Kevin Schade vs new £15m signing Jaidon Anthony, who scored in the Wimbledon friendly.
Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.
Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)
ThiagoBRE · FWD · £8.0m3.9 pts
O.DangoBRE · MID · £6.5m3.6 pts
CollinsBRE · DEF · £5.5m3.6 ptsMore predictions for these teams
Leeds vs Brentford — Head-to-Head
In 1 recorded meeting since 21 March 2026, Leeds have won 0, Brentford have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 March 2026 | Leeds 0–0 Brentford | ENGLAND: Premier League |
The model's verdict for this fixture: Leeds 52% · draw 29% · Brentford 19%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.