FT · England: Premier League · Monday, 14 September 2026
Leeds United 4–1 Newcastle UnitedMatch recap · Monday, 14 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Leeds United win
43%
Result
Draw
25%
Newcastle United win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.