FT · England: Premier League · Monday, 14 September 2026
Leeds United 4–1 Newcastle UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 14 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Leeds United at 43%, draw at 25%, Newcastle United at 32%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Leeds United.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
United win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.66 – 1.41
Total 3.07
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% because Leeds' 1.66 xG and Newcastle's 1.41 xG combine for a high-volume attacking forecast despite both sides sitting level on points."