What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Lecce vs Monza?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lecce are favoured (36% win probability vs 35% for Monza, 29% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Monza?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Lecce 1-1 Monza (13.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.45.
How does Bawler predict Lecce vs Monza?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Lecce 36%, the draw 29% and Monza 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Monza?
BTTS: No (50% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.23 and away expected goals 1.22.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Lecce vs Monza?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.45. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).