How it finished
Lecce beat Monza 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Monza at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lecce 31%. It forecast 2.4 goals; the match produced 5. Lecce had 7 shots (3 on target) to Monza's 19 (11), with 39% of the ball against 61%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 2.8, so Monza created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce beat Monza 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Monza at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lecce 31%. It forecast 2.4 goals; the match produced 5. Lecce had 7 shots (3 on target) to Monza's 19 (11), with 39% of the ball against 61%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 2.8, so Monza created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce 3–2 Monza, played on 13 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lecce 31%, the draw 29% and Monza 40%.
What were the stats in Lecce vs Monza?
Full-time: Possession 39%–61%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–2.8, Shots 7–19, Shots on target 3–11, Shots inside box 6–14, Big chances 4–6, Corners 4–6, Saves 8–0, Fouls 14–13, Offsides 0–4, Yellow cards 2–0.
Did both teams score in Lecce vs Monza?
Yes — both Lecce and Monza scored, finishing 3–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 49% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Lecce vs Monza right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Monza or draw 69%, it finished Lecce won (31% called); Total goals — we said 2.4, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 49%, it finished Yes.