FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Venezia 0–2 LecceMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Venezia or draw at 78%. Bawler had Venezia at 51%, the draw at 27% and Lecce at 22%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Venezia win
51%
Draw
27%
Lecce win
22%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 0.9
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Venezia or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.