FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Venezia 0–2 LecceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Venezia at 51%, draw at 27%, Lecce at 22%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Venezia to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Venezia win
51%
Draw
27%
Lecce win
22%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 0.95
Total 2.50
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won