FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Monza 2–3 UdineseMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Monza or draw at 65%. Bawler had Monza at 37%, the draw at 28% and Udinese at 35%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Monza win
37%
Draw
28%
Udinese win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Monza or draw
Pre-match: 65%
Missed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Monza's home platform meets an Udinese side with limited motivation, yet the xG gap narrows to just 0.26, making Monza or draw (65% forecast) the model's anchor despite Monza's marginal edge."