FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Lazio 3–1 MonzaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lazio or draw at 72%. Bawler had Lazio at 45%, the draw at 27% and Monza at 28%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lazio win
45%
Result
Draw
27%
Monza win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.