FT · ITALY: Serie A · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Internazionale 4–1 MonzaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Internazionale at 70%, draw at 19%, Monza at 11%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Internazionale.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Internazionale win
70%
Actual ✓
Draw
19%
Monza win
11%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.17 – 0.73
Total 2.90
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 89%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost