FT · ITALY: Serie A · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Internazionale 4–1 MonzaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Internazionale to win at 70%. Bawler had Internazionale at 70%, the draw at 19% and Monza at 11%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Internazionale win
70%
Result
Draw
19%
Monza win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.7
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Internazionale or draw
Pre-match: 89%
Landed
Outside shot
Monza or draw
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.