Bawler's model rates this match: Zulte-Waregem are favoured (44% win probability vs 30% for KV Kortrijk, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is KV Kortrijk 1-1 Zulte-Waregem (12.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.93.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives KV Kortrijk 30%, the draw 26% and Zulte-Waregem 44%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (59% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.31 and away expected goals 1.62.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.93. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).