FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Zulte-Waregem 0–1 Royal Charleroi SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Zulte-Waregem at 35%, draw at 26%, Royal Charleroi SC at 39%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Royal Charleroi SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Zulte-Waregem win
35%
Draw
26%
SC win
39%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.50
Total 2.90
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% because both sides generate similar attacking threat—Zulte-Waregem 1.40 xG and Royal Charleroi 1.50 xG—leaving the match wide open for a multi-goal outcome."