FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League · Sunday, 30 August 2026
KVC Westerlo 2–2 Zulte-WaregemMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had KVC Westerlo at 40%, draw at 25%, Zulte-Waregem at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was KVC Westerlo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Westerlo win
40%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Zulte-Waregem win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.66 – 1.54
Total 3.20
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won