FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 29 August 2026

KV Kortrijk 1–3 Royal Charleroi SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026

KV Kortrijk
1–3
Royal Charleroi SC win
Royal Charleroi SC

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Royal Charleroi SC or draw at 76%. Bawler had KV Kortrijk at 24%, the draw at 25% and Royal Charleroi SC at 50%. The match finished 1–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

KV Kortrijk win
24%
Draw
25%
Royal Charleroi SC win
50%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.6
From the match itself

The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 78% forecast confidence, anchored by Charleroi's 0.59 xG advantage and 50% win probability suggesting an attacking setup that Kortrijk's 1.14 xG ceiling cannot neutralize."

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