KV Kortrijk 1–3 Royal Charleroi SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026

1–3

Royal Charleroi SC win

Royal Charleroi SC

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had KV Kortrijk at 24%, draw at 25%, Royal Charleroi SC at 50%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Royal Charleroi SC.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Kortrijk win

24%

Draw

25%

SC win

50%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.14 – 1.73

Total 2.87

Actual

1 – 3

Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 78%

✓ Won

Medium confidence

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 55%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 25%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 78% forecast confidence, anchored by Charleroi's 0.59 xG advantage and 50% win probability suggesting an attacking setup that Kortrijk's 1.14 xG ceiling cannot neutralize."

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