What we expect
In plain English
Inter Miami CF are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than D.C. United, and D.C. United have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Inter Miami CF to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Inter Miami CF vs D.C. United?
Bawler's model rates this match: Inter Miami CF are favoured (61% win probability vs 19% for D.C. United, 20% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Inter Miami CF vs D.C. United?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Inter Miami CF 2-1 D.C. United (9.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.66.
How does Bawler predict Inter Miami CF vs D.C. United?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Inter Miami CF 61%, the draw 20% and D.C. United 19%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Inter Miami CF vs D.C. United?
BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.38 and away expected goals 1.28.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Inter Miami CF vs D.C. United?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.66. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).