Houston Dynamo FC vs Austin FC
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals is the play at 77% probability, with Houston's 0.83 expected-goal advantage creating the ceiling for a low-scoring affair that rarely stays quiet.
Houston Dynamo average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Austin average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Houston Dynamo vs Austin — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Houston Dynamo and Austin — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Houston Dynamo 54% · draw 28% · Austin 19%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.