Match prediction·USA: MLS·Sunday 26 Jul, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo FC vs Austin FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals is the play at 77% probability, with Houston's 0.83 expected-goal advantage creating the ceiling for a low-scoring affair that rarely stays quiet.

📊 Win probability
53.6% home27.6% draw18.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Houston Dynamo FCstepAustin FC
1.66Base xG · rolling 26-match1.12
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.88Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.05

Houston Dynamo average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Austin average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
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10
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Houston Dynamo vs Austin — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Houston Dynamo and Austin — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Houston Dynamo 54% · draw 28% · Austin 19%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Houston Dynamo FC 30 Austin FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.