FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
Houston Dynamo FC 3–0 Austin FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Houston Dynamo FC at 54%, draw at 28%, Austin FC at 19%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Houston Dynamo FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
FC win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.88 – 1.05
Total 2.93
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the play at 77% probability, with Houston's 0.83 expected-goal advantage creating the ceiling for a low-scoring affair that rarely stays quiet."