What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 79%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
Hajduk Split are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won five of their last six, and the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Ajax Amsterdam. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Hajduk Split or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Hajduk Split vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Bawler's model rates this match: Hajduk Split are favoured (49% win probability vs 28% for Ajax Amsterdam, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Hajduk Split vs Ajax Amsterdam?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Hajduk Split 1-1 Ajax Amsterdam (9.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.62.
How does Bawler predict Hajduk Split vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Hajduk Split 49%, the draw 22% and Ajax Amsterdam 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Ajax Amsterdam?
BTTS: Yes (69% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.07 and away expected goals 1.55.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Hajduk Split vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.62. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).