Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Hajduk Split v Sint-Truidense prediction
Our model only just leans towards Hajduk Split here: 38% to win, with Sint-Truidense on 37% and the draw on 25%. Our predicted score is Hajduk Split 2–1 Sint-Truidense: the most likely score if Hajduk Split win, at 8%. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Hajduk Split and 1.6 for Sint-Truidense, 3.1 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (63%) and three or more goals is 61%.
On form, Hajduk Split have four wins, one draw and one defeat from their last six games, and Sint-Truidense have three wins, one draw and two defeats. We expect Hajduk Split to have 14.8 shots (5.5 on target) and Sint-Truidense 12.6 (3.2 on target), and corners at 4.4 to 5.2.
Nathanaël Mbuku (Sint-Truidense) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 2.3 shots if they start. Shion Shinkawa (Sint-Truidense) leads for shots on target, at 0.9. Nelson Ishiwatari of Sint-Truidense is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. Bawler's pick combines Over 22.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 65%, a fair price of 8/15 (1.53).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Hajduk Split · last 6
Sint-Truidense · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Hajduk Split or draw is 63% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Jupiler Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truidense?
Bawler's model rates this match: Hajduk Split are favoured (38% win probability vs 37% for Sint-Truidense, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truidense?
Bawler's predicted score is Hajduk Split 2-1 Sint-Truidense: the most likely score if Hajduk Split win, which is the likeliest result (38%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.3%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truidense?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Hajduk Split 38%, the draw 25% and Sint-Truidense 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truidense?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 63% chance. That is based on Hajduk Split expecting 1.59 goals and Sint-Truidense 1.56.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truidense?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Hajduk Split v Sint-Truidense line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Hajduk Split v Sint-Truidense?
Over 22.5 Total Shots (80%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (82%), Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target (85%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 65% chance, a fair price of 8/15 (1.53). 18+, please gamble responsibly.