FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax AmsterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ajax Amsterdam or draw at 75%. Bawler had Sparta Rotterdam at 25%, the draw at 23% and Ajax Amsterdam at 52%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sparta Rotterdam win
25%
Draw
23%
Ajax Amsterdam win
52%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 2.1
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
Ajax Amsterdam to win
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast, with Ajax's 0.64 expected-goal advantage and 52% win probability suggesting clinical finishing from Weghorst's striker role will breach Sparta's defense."