What we expect
In plain English
FC Utrecht are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Willem II, and they have won four of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
FC Utrecht to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win FC Utrecht vs Willem II?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Utrecht are favoured (65% win probability vs 16% for Willem II, 20% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for FC Utrecht vs Willem II?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is FC Utrecht 2-1 Willem II (9.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.45.
How does Bawler predict FC Utrecht vs Willem II?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives FC Utrecht 65%, the draw 20% and Willem II 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Utrecht vs Willem II?
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.35 and away expected goals 1.09.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Utrecht vs Willem II?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.45. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).