FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem IIMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sparta Rotterdam or draw at 79%. Bawler had Sparta Rotterdam at 57%, the draw at 22% and Willem II at 21%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sparta Rotterdam win
57%
Result
Draw
22%
Willem II win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.2
Total 3.4
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.4 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.