FT · Netherlands: KNVB Beker · Thursday, 29 October 2026
Kozakken Boys 0–1 FC UtrechtMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 29 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Utrecht or draw at 75%. Bawler had Kozakken Boys at 25%, the draw at 25% and FC Utrecht at 50%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Kozakken Boys win
25%
Draw
25%
FC Utrecht win
50%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Kozakken Boys to win
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 76%, built on Utrecht's 0.54 xG advantage and superior attacking threat in a cup tie where both sides average 2.74 total expected goals."