FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 24 October 2026
FC Utrecht 1–1 PEC ZwolleMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Utrecht or draw at 82%. Bawler had FC Utrecht at 59%, the draw at 22% and PEC Zwolle at 18%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Utrecht win
59%
Draw
22%
Result
PEC Zwolle win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.0
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Utrecht or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Utrecht's superior shot quality—a 0.97 expected-goals edge—underpins the FC Utrecht or draw forecast at 82% confidence, reflecting their dominance despite playing a visitor sitting nine points adrift."