FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Willem II 1–6 SC CambuurMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Willem II or draw at 64%. Bawler had Willem II at 40%, the draw at 23% and SC Cambuur at 36%. The match finished 1–6.
Pre-match probability vs result
Willem II win
40%
Draw
23%
SC Cambuur win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.7
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 6
Total 7 (+3.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 3.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 87% conviction because both sides combine for 3.57 expected goals, with Willem II's narrow 1.84 xG edge giving neither team decisive dominance in a fixture tilted toward attacking production."