FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 18 October 2026
FC Twente 1–2 FC UtrechtMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Twente to win at 61%. Bawler had FC Twente at 61%, the draw at 22% and FC Utrecht at 17%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Twente win
61%
Draw
22%
FC Utrecht win
17%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.0
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Twente to win
Pre-match: 61%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.