FC Porto vs Moreirense prediction — Liga Portugal · Fri 4 Sept · 20:15 UK

Liga Portugal · Fri 4 Sept · 20:15 UK
FC Porto 76Draw 17Moreirense 7
Our call before kickoff
76%
FC Porto to win
Landed
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–1
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
80%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
39%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
56%

How it finished

FC Porto beat Moreirense 2–1. Bawler's model had FC Porto in front at 76% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. FC Porto had 23 shots (9 on target) to Moreirense's 7 (2), with 70% of the ball against 30%. Expected goals finished 2.9 to 0.9.

FC PortoFull-time statsMoreirense
70%Possession30%
2.9Expected goals (xG)0.9
23Shots7
9Shots on target2
14Shots inside box5
3Big chances2
9Corners1
1Saves7
11Fouls12
4Offsides1
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callFC Porto to win 76%FC Porto won (76% called)
Total goals2.93
Both teams to score39%Yes

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

FC PortoMoreirense
2.3
Goals+1.8
0.6
16.2
Shots+10.0
6.1
6.8
On target+4.7
2.1
7.0
Corners+4.5
2.5
FC PortoMoreirense
0.7
Goals+0.5
0.3
7.7
Shots+4.9
2.9
3.2
On target+2.2
1.1
3.3
Corners+2.1
1.2
FC PortoMoreirense
1.6
Goals+1.3
0.3
8.4
Shots+5.2
3.3
3.6
On target+2.5
1.1
3.7
Corners+2.4
1.3

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
FC Porto to score90%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Under 3.5 goals67%
Both teams to score — no61%

First half — what we expected

FC Porto
73%
to score before half-time
Moreirense
27%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%

FC PortoMoreirense
7.71st-half shots2.9
3.21st-half shots on target1.1
3.31st-half corners1.2

First-half chances

60%Chance of 7+ shots<10%
37%Chance of 9+ shots<10%
80%Chance of 2+ shots on target29%
40%Chance of 4+ shots on target<10%
79%Chance of 2+ corners32%
41%Chance of 4+ corners<10%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · FC Porto7.78.4
Shots · Moreirense2.93.3
Shots on target · FC Porto3.23.6
Shots on target · Moreirense1.11.1
Corners · FC Porto3.33.7
Corners · Moreirense1.21.3
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+1.8 / match
Head-to-head, last 5FC Porto 4 · Draws 0 · Moreirense 1
Moreirense in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Mar 2026FC Porto 3–0 Moreirense
Oct 2025Moreirense 1–2 FC Porto
May 2025FC Porto 3–1 Moreirense
Dec 2024Moreirense 0–3 FC Porto
Nov 2024Moreirense 2–1 FC Porto
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won FC Porto vs Moreirense?

FC Porto beat Moreirense 2–1. Bawler's model had FC Porto in front at 76% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. FC Porto had 23 shots (9 on target) to Moreirense's 7 (2), with 70% of the ball against 30%. Expected goals finished 2.9 to 0.9.

What was the final score in FC Porto vs Moreirense?

FC Porto 2–1 Moreirense, played on 04 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with FC Porto 76%, the draw 17% and Moreirense 7%.

What were the stats in FC Porto vs Moreirense?

Full-time: Possession 70%–30%, Expected goals (xG) 2.9–0.9, Shots 23–7, Shots on target 9–2, Shots inside box 14–5, Big chances 3–2, Corners 9–1, Saves 1–7, Fouls 11–12, Offsides 4–1, Yellow cards 1–2, Red cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in FC Porto vs Moreirense?

Yes — both FC Porto and Moreirense scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 39% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for FC Porto vs Moreirense right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said FC Porto to win 76%, it finished FC Porto won (76% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 39%, it finished Yes.

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →FC Porto form →Moreirense form →