FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Académico de Viseu 0–3 FC PortoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Porto or draw at 80%. Bawler had Académico de Viseu at 20%, the draw at 26% and FC Porto at 54%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Académico de Viseu win
20%
Draw
26%
FC Porto win
54%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 1.7
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Porto or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Porto's superior finishing threat—striker Samu Aghehowa commanding 28% of their xG—underpins the FC Porto or draw forecast (54% win probability), with a 0.72 xG gap that favors the visitors in a 1.66–0.94 expected-goals split."