Match prediction·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Saturday 22 Aug, 17:00 UTC

Estoril vs Rio Ave

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
48.1% home30.2% draw21.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
EstorilstepRio Ave
1.65Base xG · rolling 26-match1.05
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.65Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.05

Estoril average 4.7 corners per game at home this season (18 competitive matches). Rio Ave average 3.3 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
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5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

Estoril fixtures & form →Rio Ave fixtures & form →

Estoril vs Rio Ave — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 22 March 2026, Estoril have won 0, Rio Ave have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
22 March 2026Estoril 1–2 Rio AvePORTUGAL: Liga Portugal

The model's verdict for this fixture: Estoril 48% · draw 30% · Rio Ave 22%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Estoril predictions & form →Rio Ave predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.