Derby County vs 
Cardiff City
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Derby CountystepCardiff CityDerby average 5.3 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches).
Early projection
These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.
More predictions for these teams
Derby vs Cardiff City — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Derby and Cardiff City — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Derby 42% · draw 34% · Cardiff City 25%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.