FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Monday, 17 August 2026
Cardiff City 1–1 WrexhamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 17 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Cardiff City at 48%, draw at 31%, Wrexham at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Cardiff City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
48%
Draw
31%
Actual ✓
Wrexham win
21%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✓ Won