FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Cardiff City 1–2 Norwich CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Cardiff City at 34%, draw at 26%, Norwich City at 40%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Norwich City.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
34%
Draw
26%
City win
40%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.38 – 1.51
Total 2.89
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost