How it finished
Birmingham City beat Derby County 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Birmingham City 33%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 3. Derby County had 18 shots (4 on target) to Birmingham City's 18 (9), with 59% of the ball against 41%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 3.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 66%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Derby County vs Birmingham City?
Birmingham City beat Derby County 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Birmingham City 33%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 3. Derby County had 18 shots (4 on target) to Birmingham City's 18 (9), with 59% of the ball against 41%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 3.1.
What was the final score in Derby County vs Birmingham City?
Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Derby County 39%, the draw 28% and Birmingham City 33%.
What were the stats in Derby County vs Birmingham City?
Full-time: Possession 59%–41%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–3.1, Shots 18–18, Shots on target 4–9, Shots inside box 10–13, Big chances 3–5, Corners 10–4, Saves 6–1, Fouls 8–12, Offsides 4–1, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Derby County vs Birmingham City?
Yes — both Derby County and Birmingham City scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Derby County vs Birmingham City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Derby County or draw 67%, it finished Birmingham City won (33% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes.