What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 63%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
Getafe are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Getafe or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win CSU Craiova vs Getafe?
Bawler's model rates this match: Getafe are favoured (38% win probability vs 32% for CSU Craiova, 31% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for CSU Craiova vs Getafe?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is CSU Craiova 1-1 Getafe (14.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.23.
How does Bawler predict CSU Craiova vs Getafe?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives CSU Craiova 32%, the draw 31% and Getafe 38%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in CSU Craiova vs Getafe?
BTTS: No (55% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.05 and away expected goals 1.17.
Over or under 2.5 goals in CSU Craiova vs Getafe?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.23. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).