FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Getafe 2–5 FC LuganoMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Getafe or draw at 81%. Bawler had Getafe at 55%, the draw at 27% and FC Lugano at 19%. The match finished 2–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
55%
Draw
27%
FC Lugano win
19%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 0.8
Total 2.4
Actual
2 – 5
Total 7 (+4.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 4.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Getafe or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Getafe's 0.76 expected-goals advantage underpins the Getafe or draw forecast at 81%, as the hosts' attacking edge makes them heavy favorites to either win or draw."