FT · Spain: La Liga · Monday, 19 October 2026
Getafe 1–1 Rayo VallecanoMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 19 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Rayo Vallecano or draw at 66%. Bawler had Getafe at 34%, the draw at 30% and Rayo Vallecano at 35%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
34%
Draw
30%
Result
Rayo Vallecano win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.1
Total 2.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 30%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Rayo Vallecano or draw holds as the high-confidence forecast at 66% because the win-probability spread is razor-thin—Getafe 34% to Rayo's 35%—with xG nearly identical at 1.10 versus 1.13."