FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Columbus Crew 1–2 New York City FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Columbus Crew at 43%, draw at 32%, New York City FC at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Columbus Crew to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Crew win
43%
Draw
32%
FC win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.49 – 1.08
Total 2.57
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 19%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 69% probability because Columbus's 1.49 xG and 0.41 edge over New York City's 1.08 creates a high-volume attacking setup at home."