Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 81% probability because Columbus generates a decisive 0.50 xG edge (1.79 vs 1.28) with Diego Rossi controlling a quarter of their attacking output.
Columbus CrewstepFC CincinnatiColumbus Crew average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Cincinnati average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Columbus Crew vs Cincinnati — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Columbus Crew and Cincinnati — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Columbus Crew 46% · draw 28% · Cincinnati 25%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Columbus Crew 2–1 FC CincinnatiModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.