What we expect
In plain English
Columbus Crew are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six, and Charlotte FC have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Columbus Crew or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Columbus Crew vs Charlotte FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: Columbus Crew are favoured (45% win probability vs 29% for Charlotte FC, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Columbus Crew vs Charlotte FC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Columbus Crew 1-1 Charlotte FC (11.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.94.
How does Bawler predict Columbus Crew vs Charlotte FC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Columbus Crew 45%, the draw 26% and Charlotte FC 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Columbus Crew vs Charlotte FC?
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.65 and away expected goals 1.28.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Columbus Crew vs Charlotte FC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.94. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).