FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Columbus Crew 3–1 Charlotte FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Columbus Crew or draw at 71%. Bawler had Columbus Crew at 46%, the draw at 25% and Charlotte FC at 29%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Columbus Crew win
46%
Result
Draw
25%
Charlotte FC win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Columbus Crew or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.