FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Charlotte FC 3–2 FC DallasMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Charlotte FC or draw at 69%. Bawler had Charlotte FC at 44%, the draw at 25% and FC Dallas at 31%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Charlotte FC win
44%
Result
Draw
25%
FC Dallas win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.5 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.