FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Colorado Rapids 1–0 San Diego FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Colorado Rapids at 51%, draw at 27%, San Diego FC at 23%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Colorado Rapids.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rapids win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
FC win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.98 – 1.29
Total 3.26
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 84% because Colorado's 1.98 expected goals vastly outpaces San Diego's 1.29, signalling a comfortable attacking edge at home."