FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Everton 0–2 ChelseaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Everton or draw at 64%. Bawler had Everton at 38%, the draw at 26% and Chelsea at 36%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Everton win
38%
Draw
26%
Chelsea win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.