FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Chelsea 0–2 Tottenham HotspurMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Chelsea or draw at 77%. Bawler had Chelsea at 53%, the draw at 25% and Tottenham Hotspur at 23%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chelsea win
53%
Draw
25%
Tottenham Hotspur win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Chelsea to win
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 79%, driven by Chelsea's 1.80 xG advantage and their striker Cole Palmer accounting for 23% of team shot quality at home."