Match prediction·USA: MLS·Thursday 23 Jul, 00:15 UTC

Charlotte FC vs Atlanta United FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% because Charlotte's 1.74 xG dominates Atlanta's 1.15, creating a 0.59 gap that signals multiple chances will convert.

📊 Win probability
48.1% home29.1% draw22.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Charlotte FCstepAtlanta United FC
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.23
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.74Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.15

Charlotte average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (28 competitive matches). Atlanta Utd average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
4
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
8
10
6
2
1
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Charlotte vs Atlanta Utd — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Charlotte and Atlanta Utd — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Charlotte 48% · draw 29% · Atlanta Utd 23%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Charlotte FC 22 Atlanta United FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.