FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Charlotte FC 2–2 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Charlotte FC at 48%, draw at 29%, Atlanta United FC at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Charlotte FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
48%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
FC win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.74 – 1.15
Total 2.90
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% because Charlotte's 1.74 xG dominates Atlanta's 1.15, creating a 0.59 gap that signals multiple chances will convert."