CF Montréal vs Toronto FC
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% probability because Montréal's 0.40 expected-goal edge and superior 1.56 xG output creates a ceiling-breaching attacking mismatch Toronto's 1.17 xG simply cannot defend.
CF MontréalstepToronto FCCF Montréal average 5.8 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Toronto average 4.2 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
CF Montréal vs Toronto — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between CF Montréal and Toronto — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: CF Montréal 43% · draw 31% · Toronto 26%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
CF Montréal 0–0 Toronto FCModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.