FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
CF Montréal 0–1 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had CF Montréal at 40%, draw at 28%, Inter Miami CF at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was CF Montréal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Montréal win
40%
Draw
28%
CF win
32%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.74 – 1.54
Total 3.28
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 84% because both sides project 3.28 combined xG, with Montréal's home edge (1.74 xG) built on attacking setup that Messi's creativity can't fully neutralize for visiting Miami."