Match prediction·USA: MLS·Saturday 25 Jul, 23:30 UTC

CF Montréal vs Inter Miami CF

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 84% because both sides project 3.28 combined xG, with Montréal's home edge (1.74 xG) built on attacking setup that Messi's creativity can't fully neutralize for visiting Miami.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.1% draw31.9% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
CF MontréalstepInter Miami CF
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.64
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.74Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.54

CF Montréal average 5.8 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Inter Miami average 4.8 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
6
4
2
1
1
7
10
8
4
2
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
3
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
84%
Over 3.5 goals
29%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

CF Montréal fixtures & form →Inter Miami CF fixtures & form →

CF Montréal vs Inter Miami — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between CF Montréal and Inter Miami — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: CF Montréal 40% · draw 28% · Inter Miami 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

CF Montréal predictions & form →Inter Miami predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
CF Montréal 0–1 Inter Miami CF
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.