Celta Vigo vs Osasuna prediction — LaLiga · Thu 27 Aug · 19:30 UK

LaLiga · Thu 27 Aug · 19:30 UK
Celta Vigo 49Draw 27Osasuna 25
The call
74%
Over 1.5 goals
2.6
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–3

How it finished

Osasuna beat Celta Vigo 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Celta Vigo at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Osasuna 25%. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 4. Celta Vigo had 4 shots (2 on target) to Osasuna's 13 (5), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 0.1 to 2.7.

Celta VigoFull-time statsOsasuna
51%Possession49%
0.1Expected goals (xG)2.7
4Shots13
2Shots on target5
1Shots inside box9
0Big chances2
5Corners3
2Saves1
7Fouls16
3Offsides4
0Yellow cards1
1Red cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultCelta Vigo 49%Osasuna (25% called)
Total goals2.64
Both teams to score52%Yes
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 74%Landed
Second call1X 75%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Celta Vigo to score79%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Under 3.5 goals73%
Osasuna to score65%

First half — what we expected

Celta VigoBefore half-timeOsasuna
49%Chance to score39%
5.0Expected shots4.0
2.0Expected shots on target1.4
1.9Expected corners1.3
71%Chance of 4+ shots55%
38%Chance of 6+ shots23%
65%Chance of 1+ shots on target65%
33%Chance of 3+ shots on target17%
82%Chance of 1+ corners71%
29%Chance of 3+ corners16%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 68%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 5CEL 3 · D 0 · OSA 2
Opponent strength indexLower mid

Head to head

Feb 2026Celta Vigo 1–2 Osasuna
Oct 2025Osasuna 2–3 Celta Vigo
Feb 2025Celta Vigo 1–0 Osasuna
Sept 2024Osasuna 3–2 Celta Vigo
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

Osasuna beat Celta Vigo 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Celta Vigo at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Osasuna 25%. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 4. Celta Vigo had 4 shots (2 on target) to Osasuna's 13 (5), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 0.1 to 2.7.

What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

Celta Vigo 1–3 Osasuna, played on 27 Aug 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Celta Vigo 49%, the draw 27% and Osasuna 25%.

What were the stats in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 0.1–2.7, Shots 4–13, Shots on target 2–5, Shots inside box 1–9, Big chances 0–2, Corners 5–3, Saves 2–1, Fouls 7–16, Offsides 3–4, Yellow cards 0–1, Red cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

Yes — both Celta Vigo and Osasuna scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Celta Vigo 49%, it finished Osasuna (25% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 74%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said 1X 75%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

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