Match prediction·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Monday 17 Aug, 19:15 UTC

Casa Pia vs Benfica

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
9.3% home18.2% draw72.4% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Casa PiastepBenfica
0.83Base xG · rolling 26-match1.98
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.83Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.98

Casa Pia average 3.6 corners per game at home this season (17 competitive matches). Benfica average 6.8 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
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home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

Casa Pia fixtures & form →Benfica fixtures & form →

Casa Pia vs Benfica — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 April 2026, Casa Pia have won 0, Benfica have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 April 2026Casa Pia 1–1 BenficaPORTUGAL: Liga Portugal

The model's verdict for this fixture: Casa Pia 9% · draw 18% · Benfica 72%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Casa Pia predictions & form →Benfica predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.