FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Charlton Athletic 1–1 Bristol CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bristol City or draw at 65%. Bawler had Charlton Athletic at 36%, the draw at 28% and Bristol City at 36%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Charlton Athletic win
36%
Draw
28%
Result
Bristol City win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Charlton Athletic or draw
Pre-match: 64%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.