FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 24 October 2026

Charlton Athletic 1–3 Norwich CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026

Charlton Athletic
1–3
Norwich City win
Norwich City

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Norwich City or draw at 67%. Bawler had Charlton Athletic at 33%, the draw at 27% and Norwich City at 40%. The match finished 1–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Charlton Athletic win
33%
Draw
27%
Norwich City win
40%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.8
From the match itself

The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% confidence because both sides project 2.75 combined expected goals with Norwich holding a narrow 1.44 xG edge despite Charlton's home advantage."

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